Laporan Kinerja Juli 2026: NOBI Dana Kripto Indeks Kelas A

NOBI Editorial

·4 Agustus 2026·7 menit baca

Laporan Kinerja Juli 2026: NOBI Dana Kripto Indeks Kelas A

Ringkasan Performa NOBI Dana Kripto Indeks Kelas A

Memasuki bulan Juli 2026, NOBI Dana Kripto Indeks Kelas A berhasil mencatatkan kinerja positif dan menunjukkan ketahanan manajemen risiko yang solid di tengah dinamika pasar yang bergerak cepat, mulai dari fluktuasi isu geopolitik, pemulihan arus kas ETF, hingga arah kebijakan moneter global. Pada akhir Juli 2026, Nilai Aset Bersih Dana Kripto (NABDK) per Unit Kripto tumbuh positif menjadi Rp908,72, mencatatkan kenaikan bulanan sebesar 0,76% dibandingkan posisi akhir Juni sebesar Rp901,88.

Analisis Dinamika Pasar

Sepanjang minggu pertama Juli 2026, Bitcoin bangkit 9,5% hingga merebut kembali level Rp1.148.000.000 setelah sempat menyentuh titik terendah 21 bulan di kisaran Rp1.042.118.000. Pemulihan ini dipicu oleh rilis data Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) bulan Juni yang melambat tajam menjadi 57.000 (vs ekspektasi 115.000), memupuskan kekhawatiran kenaikan suku bunga Fed dan menghidupkan kembali ekspektasi pemangkasan. Kondisi ini memicu short squeeze sebesar $281 juta serta mengakhiri tren outflow 10 hari ETF Bitcoin spot AS dengan mencatatkan inflow bersih $221,72 juta pada 2 Juli.

Memasuki minggu kedua Juli 2026, Bitcoin melanjutkan pemulihannya hingga ke level Rp1.154.000.000 meskipun sempat diwarnai volatilitas pertengahan pekan. Meskipun sempat tertekan ke level Rp1.110.000.000 pada 8 Juli akibat pengumuman berakhirnya gencatan senjata oleh Presiden Trump, Bitcoin dengan cepat berbalik menguat, didorong aksi short squeeze hingga menyentuh puncaknya di Rp1.182.690.000.

Pada minggu ketiga Juli 2026, Bitcoin ditutup relatif stabil di kisaran Rp1.186.184.000 di tengah tarik-menarik antara rilis inflasi yang melandai dan retorika hawkish dari Fed. Meskipun inflasi CPI Juni tercatat melandai ke 3,5% (vs estimasi 3,8%) dan sempat melambungkan harga Bitcoin mendekati Rp1.193.800.000, penguatan tersebut tertahan setelah Ketua Fed Kevin Warsh menegaskan perlunya perubahan rezim kebijakan moneter. Di saat yang sama, ETF Bitcoin spot berhasil membalikkan arus keluar awal pekan sebesar $424,66 juta hingga ditutup positif sebesar $75,67 juta, sementara tenggat waktu aturan undang-undang stablecoin (GENIUS Act) resmi terlewati, memberikan kepastian standar kepatuhan dan cadangan yang lebih ketat bagi stabilitas pasar jangka panjang.

Di minggu keempat Juli 2026, Bitcoin bergerak konsolidasi dan ditutup pada level Rp1.153.510.000 di tengah keputusan FOMC yang mempertahankan suku bunga acuan di level 3,50%–3,75%. Inflasi yang tetap tinggi di atas target 2% akibat gangguan pasokan energi mempertegas sikap hawkish Fed, sehingga membatasi pergerakan harga Aset Kripto hingga akhir bulan.

Analisis Teknikal Bulanan BTC/USD

Bitcoin saat ini bergerak dalam pola sideways yang terstruktur, dengan harga spot terkini berkonsolidasi di level $63.689 dalam koridor $58.000 hingga $66.000 sejak awal Juli 2026. Pergerakan harga satu bulan terakhir cenderung stabil dan terukur tanpa lonjakan maupun penurunan signifikan, mempertegas fase akumulasi yang akan menentukan arah pergerakan berikutnya.

Namun dari perspektif struktural, tren jangka panjang Bitcoin masih memiliki kecenderungan menurun (bearish bias). Hal ini ditunjukkan oleh konfigurasi Moving Average yang mulai melandai (flattening), mencerminkan berkurangnya momentum serta terciptanya keseimbangan antara kekuatan pembeli (buyer) dan penjual (seller). Oleh karena itu, investor disarankan untuk tetap disiplin dan tidak terlalu cepat mengambil posisi hingga muncul sinyal yang lebih definitif, baik melalui breakout di atas zona resistance maupun breakdown yang terkonfirmasi di bawah support, guna memvalidasi arah tren yang baru.

Pertumbuhan Positif dan Manajemen Risiko Aktif di Tengah Gejolak Pasar

Pencapaian kinerja positif ini mencerminkan keandalan strategi manajemen risiko aktif portofolio dalam menangkap momentum pemulihan pasar di awal hingga pertengahan bulan, yang didorong oleh melambatnya data tenaga kerja AS (Nonfarm Payrolls) serta kembalinya inflow bersih ETF spot. Di saat yang sama, disiplin penataan aset yang fleksibel mampu mengamankan imbal hasil dan melindungi portofolio dari tekanan volatilitas saat isu geopolitik memanas serta sikap hawkish rapat FOMC menahan laju pasar di akhir bulan, sehingga modal investor tetap tumbuh secara stabil dan aman.

Disclaimer

Dokumen ini disusun untuk tujuan informasi semata dan tidak merupakan penawaran, ajakan, atau rekomendasi untuk membeli, menjual, atau memegang unit penyertaan NOBI Dana Kripto Indeks Kelas A. Kinerja masa lalu tidak mencerminkan atau menjamin kinerja masa depan. Nilai Aset Bersih Dana Kripto (NABDK) dapat mengalami fluktuasi naik maupun turun akibat volatilitas harga Aset Kripto yang mendasarinya, dan investor berpotensi mengalami kerugian atas nilai investasi awal.

Berdasarkan Surat OJK No. S-196/IK.01/2025, PT Dana Kripto Indonesia dengan produk NOBI Dana Kripto Indeks Kelas A merupakan Peserta Sandbox OJK. Calon investor disarankan untuk membaca prospektus/dokumen penawaran secara lengkap dan berkonsultasi dengan penasihat keuangan independen sebelum mengambil keputusan investasi.

July 2026 Performance Report: NOBI Dana Kripto Indeks Kelas A

Performance Summary

Entering July 2026, NOBI Dana Kripto Indeks Kelas A successfully recorded positive performance and demonstrated solid risk management resilience amidst fast-moving market dynamics, ranging from geopolitical fluctuations and ETF cash flow recoveries to the trajectory of global monetary policy. At the end of July 2026, the Net Asset Value (NAV) per Crypto Unit grew positively to Rp908.72, representing a monthly gain of 0.76% compared to the end-of-June level of Rp901.88.

Market Dynamics Analysis

During the first week of July 2026, Bitcoin rebounded 9.5% to reclaim Rp1,148,000,000 after touching a 21-month low near Rp1,042,118,000. This recovery was fueled by June Nonfarm Payrolls printing significantly weaker than expected (+57,000 vs. +115,000 consensus), which effectively took a near-term Fed rate hike off the table and revived rate cut expectations. The macro shift triggered a $281 million short squeeze and snapped a 10-day, $2.73 billion outflow streak for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs with a $221.72 million net inflow on July 2.

Entering the second week of July 2026, Bitcoin continued its recovery toward Rp1,154,000,000 despite midweek volatility. Although briefly pressured down to Rp1,110,000,000 on July 8 following President Trump's declaration that the ceasefire was over, Bitcoin quickly rebounded through a short squeeze to reach a peak of Rp1,182,690,000.

During the third week of July 2026, Bitcoin closed relatively range-bound near Rp1,186,184,000 amidst opposing forces between softening inflation data and hawkish Fed rhetoric. Although June CPI printed lower than expected at 3.5% YoY (vs. 3.8% forecast) and briefly spiked Bitcoin toward Rp1,193,800,000, gains were pared after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled a strict monetary regime change. Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs bounced back from an initial $424.66 million outflow to close the week with $75.67 million in net inflows, as the statutory rulemaking deadline for the GENIUS Act stablecoin framework officially passed, establishing stricter reserve and compliance standards for long-term market stability.

In the fourth week of July 2026, Bitcoin consolidated and closed at the Rp1,153,510,000 level as the FOMC decided to maintain the target rate at 3.50% to 3.75%. Inflation remaining elevated relative to the 2% goal due to energy supply disruptions reinforced Fed's hawkish tone, keeping a lid on crypto market momentum through the end of the month.

BTC/USD Monthly Technical Analysis

Bitcoin is currently consolidating at $63,689, trading within a clearly defined sideways corridor of $58,000 to $66,000 since early July 2026. Price action over the past month has remained notably stable and contained without material spikes or sharp declines, forming an accumulation structure designed to determine its next directional trajectory.

From a structural perspective, however, the long term trend maintains a downward bias. This is evidenced by flattening Moving Averages, which signal a deceleration in momentum and an equilibrium between buyers and sellers. Consequently, a disciplined approach is warranted, advising against premature positioning until a definitive signal emerges, either through a decisive breakout above established resistance or a confirmed breakdown below key support, to validate the start of a new trend.

Positive Growth and Active Risk Management Amidst Market Volatility

This positive performance reflects the reliability of the portfolio's active risk management strategy in capturing market recovery momentum from early to mid-month, driven by slowing U.S. labor data (Nonfarm Payrolls) and the return of net spot ETF inflows. At the same time, disciplined and flexible asset allocation successfully secured gains and protected the portfolio from volatility pressures when geopolitical tensions flared and the FOMC meeting's hawkish stance capped market momentum toward the end of the month, ensuring investor capital grew steadily and securely.

Disclaimer

This document is prepared for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold units of NOBI Dana Kripto Indeks Kelas A. Past performance is not indicative of, and does not guarantee, future performance. The Crypto Fund Net Asset Value (NABDK) may rise or fall due to volatility in the price of the underlying Crypto Assets, and investors may incur losses relative to their original investment.

Pursuant to OJK Letter No. S-196/IK.01/2025, PT Dana Kripto Indonesia, with its product NOBI Dana Kripto Indeks Kelas A, is an OJK Sandbox Participant. Prospective investors are advised to read the full prospectus/offering documents and consult an independent financial advisor before making any investment decision.